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No conservative who goes to bed on Election Night with a tiny lead should rest safe. John Thune learned that against Tim Johnson in South Dakota in 2002. Dino Rossi actually was certified as the winner of Washington state's gubernatorial race in 2004 before having it snatched away. Norm Coleman was upended by Al Franken in Minnesota in 2008. And in Indiana's "Bloody Eighth" district in 1984, Democrats swiped a seat for incumbent Frank McCloskey even after the official count showed Republican Rick McIntyre had won by hundreds of votes.

In short, conservatives can't just win; they need to win each race beyond a steal-able margin. Otherwise, Eric Holder's brigades will find a way to snatch elections away the way armed goons snatched Elian Gonzalez from his Miami relatives, at Holder's orders, in the dark of night.

THESE ARE ALL reasons for concern. They are not, however, reasons for despair. Never in our adult lifetimes have the American grassroots been so on fire, on its own, in a bottom-up movement -- and a movement for all the right things, so well motivated, and so well informed. Never has the choice between mainstream American traditions and radical leftism been so starkly obvious -- not even when George McGovern ran in 1972. And never have the polls for conservatives looked so good for so long. There is much reason to hope, as long as conservatives and Tea Partiers keep their campaign work ethics, keep their energy up, and keeping moving resolutely forward while continuing to swivel their necks enough to watch their backs.

But because the expectations now are so high, a failure to oust the current congressional leadership in at least one House will be treated, universally, as a major defeat, even if conservative ranks grow greatly. Such a "defeat" could be tremendously dispiriting. And that's all the more reason to avoid over-optimism now, so as not to be demoralized later. Optimism is fine right now, but not euphoria.

In sum, conservatives should remain upbeat -- but also sober, and ever-vigilant. Toil and sweat can lead to electoral sunlit uplands. But the latter continues to depend on the former